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When will iTulip sell gold?
We will no longer own gold when the economic and market conditions that led us to buy gold in 2001 no longer hold, the coast is clear, and the form of wealth insurance that gold offers is no longer needed: when (central banks divest), the Peak Cheap Oil Cycle is over, and the dollar has been subsumed into a multi-lateral currency system.
The challenge will be selling gold at the right time during these processes and long before they are over. For a sense of the time scale, consider that six years of background work went into the policies of the Volcker Fed before they were executed on starting in 1979.
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Gold is wealth FIRE insurance. The insurance premium keeps rising as more investors see and smell the “smoke” as sovereign debt defaults, the inevitable result of financial system crisis bailouts. Peak Cheap Oil added fuel to the FIRE. First come the crises, then the resolution of the crisis. The time to get out of gold is between the end of the crisis period and before the onset of resolution. Stay tuned. It’s going to be a rough few years.
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Pa to i ja tvrdim. Samo kaj to kad ja i ovi tulipi ionak ne kuzimo zlato ...
