Dionice Ne zaboravi na stop-loss |
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08.02.2007., 16:28
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#1
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Pacijent
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Film "trading places"(kolo srece)-kako su zaradili?
Prije par dana se na RTLu prikazao "trading places" sa Dan Aykroydom i Eddie Murphyem.
Meni nije skroz jasno sto se na kraju konkretno dogodilo da su se ova dvojica
obogatila. Imam neka ulaganja u fondove i dionice, al nismam ekonomista, i
nije mi jasno kak su to izveli.
Dakle, losi momci (Duke nand Duke) misle da ce cijena naranca uskoro skociti, pa zato kupuju sve na trzistu. Sve OK. Buy low, sell high. Ali, ako znas da ce cijena pasti, KAKO se moze profitirati od toga? Jel to nesto sto se zove "short selling" i da li je to sto su Aykroyd i Murhpy napravili ?
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08.02.2007., 16:35
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#2
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Pokojni
Registracija: May 2006.
Lokacija: U stvarnom svijetu
Postova: 5,062
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Nisam gledao ali ako je rijec o tome da su morali ispuniti obvezu iako su ispusili lovu a i rijec je o vockama (poljoprivredi), vjerojatno je rijec o futuresima. Naravno, uz veliki leverage (polugu).
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09.02.2007., 16:31
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#3
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Razmišljator
Registracija: Nov 2005.
Postova: 7,585
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Quote:
zale kaže:
Ali, ako znas da ce cijena pasti, KAKO se moze profitirati od toga?
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Ja gledam one filmove koji su na najgornjoj polici u videoteci, al šema je ta da se ja obavežem prodati a ti kupiti naranče po pet kuna za prvi maj, i onda ja molim boga da im cijena padne na 2 kune a ti da bude 8
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09.02.2007., 16:33
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#4
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Registrirani korisnik
Registracija: Apr 2006.
Postova: 1,819
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Explanation of climax scene
With the authentic orange crop report indicating a good harvest of fresh oranges, frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) would be less important to food producers and so would be likely to drop in price once traders heard the news. However, by way of a fraudulent report, the Duke brothers are led to believe that the orange harvest would be less successful, necessitating greater demand for stockpiled FCOJ in orange products in the coming year, thereby driving the price up. By capitalizing on this knowledge (and the Duke brothers' missteps), the protagonists are able to profit by manipulating the futures market as follows:
* Unlike conventional stock, futures contracts can be sold even when the seller does not yet own any of the commodity. A contract to sell, say, 15,000 pounds of FCOJ at $1.50 per pound in February merely indicates the seller's obligation to provide and the buyer's obligation to purchase the product at the specified price and time. It does not matter how or where the seller gets the product, as long as, one way or another, he is able to provide it at that price at that time, even if it results in a sale at a loss to him.
* In this case, Winthorpe and Valentine first "sell" FCOJ futures at roughly $1.45 per unit, a price inflated by the Dukes themselves (the Duke Brothers' buying leads other traders to believe that the Dukes are trying to corner the market, causing a buying frenzy). Then, when the price falls as a result of the release of the real crop report indicating a good harvest, Winthorpe and Valentine buy futures at roughly $0.22 per unit. Thus, for every future unit they had previously sold at $1.45, they purchase a matching amount for only $0.22, resulting in a profit of over $1.20 per unit (over 545%). Though it is not stated in the movie exactly how much they make, if they invested roughly $500,000 from a combination of Winthorpe/Valentine's investment, the Duke's money from buying the "fake" report from a fake Clarence Beeks (Paul Gleason) and Coleman's and Ophelia's savings, they would have turned it into over $2.7 million. It is strongly implied that they purchased additional futures on margin and made dozens (or hundreds) of millions more, since a lesser amount would not bankrupt the Dukes.
* At the same time, the Duke brothers purchase enormous quantities of FCOJ futures, even at relatively high prices, because they incorrectly expect that the crop report (falsely suggesting a greater need for stockpiled orange juice) will create a demand at even higher prices, securing them a profit. When it turns out that the leaked report they were given was fraudulent and the true report is revealed, the price begins to plummet before they are able to sell off their contracts. So, they are left with an obligation to buy millions of units of FCOJ at a price more than a dollar per unit higher than they can sell them for, bankrupting them. The Dukes too, are trading on margin, in order to magnify their profits (or losses, as it turns out). The first words that the exchange representative says to them after their disastrous trading session are "Margin call, gentlemen.", requiring them to deposit more money with the exchange to cover their open lossmaking position. Since their open position is hundreds of millions of dollars in the red, they have no further margin to deposit, they are effectively ruined.
* The $1.20 per pound price change on FCOJ futures that generated Winthorpe and Valentine's huge profit would be unlikely in the real FCOJ market. The exchange that houses the FCOJ futures trading imposes a daily limit of 10 cents per pound on the price movement of the near month contract from its previous day's settlement price. Most commodities futures contracts have daily limits. After the FCOJ price is 10 cents away from the prior settlement price, trading is halted and the market is referred to as "limit up" or "limit down". Trading reopens if prices are again within the limit, and the next day the price can change 10 cents again. The price limit can be widened under certain market conditions.
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11.02.2007., 22:59
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#5
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Pacijent
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Hvala puno na odgovorima! Eto, naucio sam osnove "futures"-a.
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Tematski alati |
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Opcije prikaza |
Linearni mod
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Sva vremena su GMT +2. Trenutno vrijeme je: 23:16.
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