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Old 05.01.2006., 11:21   #1
Opasne Ideje

www.edge.org je i ove godine napravio interesantan novogodisnji prilog. Novinari su pitali 120 vrhunskih znanstvenika koju znanstvenu ideju (koja nije nuzno morala poteci od njih) smatraju najopasnijom - ne zato sto bi mogla biti kriva, nego zato sto bi mogla biti tocna. Preporucam kao ultrazabavno stivo za trenutke dokolice dok vam kompjuter racuna nesto ...

http://www.edge.org/q2006/q06_print.html

Interesantne ideje koje copy pasteam na engleskom jer mi se ne prevodi:

1. Craig Venter, founder of the J Craig Venter Science Foundation, said the genetic basis of personality and behaviour would cause conflicts in society. He said it was inevitable that strong genetic components would be discovered at the root of many more human characteristics such as personality type, language capability, intelligence, quality of memory and athletic ability. "The danger rests with what we already know: that we are not all created equal," he said.

2. Science may be 'running out of control'

3. Government is the problem not the solution

4. The posterior probability of any particular God is pretty small

5. The hyper-Islamicist critique of the West as a decadent force that is already on a downhill course might be true

6. The more we discover about cognition and the brain, the more we will realize that education as we know it does not accomplish what we believe it does

7. Runaway consumerism explains the Fermi Paradox

The story goes like this: Sometime in the 1940s, Enrico Fermi was talking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial intelligence with some other physicists. They were impressed that our galaxy holds 100 billion stars, that life evolved quickly and progressively on earth, and that an intelligent, exponentially-reproducing species could colonize the galaxy in just a few million years. They reasoned that extra-terrestrial intelligence should be common by now. Fermi listened patiently, then asked simply, "So, where is everybody?". That is, if extra-terrestrial intelligence is common, why haven't we met any bright aliens yet? This conundrum became known as Fermi's Paradox.

I suggest a different, even darker solution to Fermi's Paradox. Basically, I think the aliens don't blow themselves up; they just get addicted to computer games. They forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they're too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. They don't need Sentinels to enslave them in a Matrix; they do it to themselves, just as we are doing today.

8. The End of Insight

I worry that insight is becoming impossible, at least at the frontiers of mathematics. Even when we're able to figure out what's true or false, we're less and less able to understand why.

9. Science Must Destroy Religion

10. The human brain and its products are incapable of understanding the truths about the universe

11. The free market
One of the most dangerous ideas at large in the current culture is that the "free market" is the ultimate arbiter of political decisions, and that there is an "invisible hand" that will direct us to the most desirable future provided the free market is allowed to actualize itself. This mystical faith is based on some reasonable empirical foundations, but when embraced as a final solution to the ills of humankind, it risks destroying both the material resources, and the cultural achievements that our species has so painstakingly developed.

12. Free will is going away. Time to redesign society to take that into account.

13. No More Teacher's Dirty Looks
My dangerous idea is one that most people immediately reject without giving it serious thought: school is bad for kids — it makes them unhappy and as tests show — they don't learn much.
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Old 05.01.2006., 12:01   #2
Talking Dobre ideje!

Quote:
Stribor cumez kaže:
3. Government is the problem not the solution
4. The posterior probability of any particular God is pretty small
5. The hyper-Islamicist critique of the West as a decadent force that is already on a downhill course might be true
9. Science Must Destroy Religion
13. No More Teacher's Dirty Looks
Ove ideje mi se sviđaju.
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Old 05.01.2006., 14:39   #3
Zanimljivo je da nijedan znanstvenik nije spomenuo opasna oruzja koja bi mogla proizaci iz znanosti, iako se znanstvenicima tradicionalno prigovara da je njihova najveca krivnja u tome sto su imali vaznu (da ne kazem kljucnu) ulogu pri razvijanju nuklearnog, kemijskog, bioloskog i inog oruzja.

Ne znam kako bih to interpretirao.
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Old 05.01.2006., 14:51   #4
Mozda tako sto oruzje nije opasna ideja nego opasna materija
U ovom se ispitivanju vise islo na opasne ideje kao sto su: kopernikova, darwinova, eugenika, komunizam, nacizam, . . .
Al eto mozda je opasna ideja da znanstvenici vise ne vide opasnost u svojim tehnoloskim dostignucima nego je vise traze u drustvu.
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Old 05.01.2006., 14:57   #5
Quote:
Stribor cumez kaže:
Mozda tako sto oruzje nije opasna ideja nego opasna materija
Jest, ali treba imat i ideju za napravit opasno oruzje.

Ne znam je li tim znanstvenicima netko prethodno objasnio na koji "tip" ideja se misli, ili su oni svi spontano mislili na taj paradigmatski tip ideja.
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Old 05.01.2006., 15:26   #6
Quote:
7. Runaway consumerism explains the Fermi Paradox

The story goes like this: Sometime in the 1940s, Enrico Fermi was talking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial intelligence with some other physicists. They were impressed that our galaxy holds 100 billion stars, that life evolved quickly and progressively on earth, and that an intelligent, exponentially-reproducing species could colonize the galaxy in just a few million years. They reasoned that extra-terrestrial intelligence should be common by now. Fermi listened patiently, then asked simply, "So, where is everybody?". That is, if extra-terrestrial intelligence is common, why haven't we met any bright aliens yet? This conundrum became known as Fermi's Paradox.

I suggest a different, even darker solution to Fermi's Paradox. Basically, I think the aliens don't blow themselves up; they just get addicted to computer games. They forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they're too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. They don't need Sentinels to enslave them in a Matrix; they do it to themselves, just as we are doing today.
Quote:
11. The free market
One of the most dangerous ideas at large in the current culture is that the "free market" is the ultimate arbiter of political decisions, and that there is an "invisible hand" that will direct us to the most desirable future provided the free market is allowed to actualize itself. This mystical faith is based on some reasonable empirical foundations, but when embraced as a final solution to the ills of humankind, it risks destroying both the material resources, and the cultural achievements that our species has so painstakingly developed.
Ovo dvoje mi se jako sviđa. Mislim da u tome ima jako puno istine (joj sad Bariole ovo vidi )
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Old 05.01.2006., 16:08   #7
Vidio sam. Pročitaj cijeli taj članak. Iz mojih ustiju nikada nije prošlo da je nevidljiva ruka poželjna u svakoj situaciji. Npr. trgovina oružjem i drogom i paranormalnim uslugama su prve stvari koje mi padaju na pamet.
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Old 05.01.2006., 17:01   #8
Evo ima jedna po skeptikovom ukusu

FRANK TIPLER

Why I Hope the Standard Model is Wrong about Why There is More Matter Than Antimatter

The Standard Model says that there is a way to convert all the mass of ordinary matter into energy; for example, it is in principle possible to convert the proton and electron making up a hydrogen atom entirely into energy. Particle physicists have long known about this possibility, but have considered it forever irrelevant to human technology because the energy required to convert matter into pure energy via this process is at the very limit of our most powerful accelerators (a trillion electron volts, or one TeV).

I am very much afraid that the particle physicists are wrong about this Standard Model pure energy conversion process being forever irrelevant to human affairs. I have recently come to believe that the consistency of quantum field theory requires that it should be possible to convert up to 100 kilograms of ordinary matter into pure energy via this process using a device that could fit inside the trunk of a car, a device that could be manufactured in a small factory. Such a device would solve all our energy problems — we would not need fossil fuels — but 100 kilograms of energy is the energy released by a 1,000-megaton nuclear bomb. If such a bomb can be manufactured in a small factory, then terrorists everywhere will eventually have such weapons. I fear for the human race if this comes to pass. I very hope I am wrong about the technological feasibility of such a bomb.
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Old 09.01.2006., 22:48   #9
Quote:
bariole kaže:
Vidio sam. Pročitaj cijeli taj članak. Iz mojih ustiju nikada nije prošlo da je nevidljiva ruka poželjna u svakoj situaciji. Npr. trgovina oružjem i drogom i paranormalnim uslugama su prve stvari koje mi padaju na pamet.
Nije poželjna? Nije li više problem da nepostoji. Nemoze se baš pokazat da se firme zalažu za građane i sl. Pogledaj samo medijsku industriju za početak.

PS: Evo ti topica
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Old 09.01.2006., 23:02   #10
Quote:
AxMi-24 kaže:
Nije poželjna? Nije li više problem da nepostoji. Nemoze se baš pokazat da se firme zalažu za građane i sl. Pogledaj samo medijsku industriju za početak.
Poanta nevidljive ruke je da beneficije proizlaze baš zbog toga što svatko gleda samo vlastite interese..

Normalno postoje i iznimke, npr. situacije kada postoji ekonomski interes za robom koja radi destruktivno po društvo, kao i neki problemi oko (obično iskoristivih) dobara sa vrlo ograničenim pristupom. Osobito su opasne situacije kada određivanje cijene dolazi baš iz ruku onih koji pružaju eksluzivnu uslugu (npr. državni biljezi kao benigan primjer ili američki doktori kao vrlo upozoravajući primjer)..

Quote:
AxMi-24 kaže:
PS: Evo ti topica
Tnx..
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Old 09.01.2006., 23:09   #11
Dakle ti misliš da media industrija radi kako treba?
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Old 10.01.2006., 00:03   #12
Pa ono. A kako bi to trebala raditi? S jedne strane imaš jako puno senzacionalizma (ptičja gripa npr.) koji je motiviran isključivo ekonomskim razlozima, s druge strane imaš jako puno politike koja bome često lomi, štoviše amputira spominjanu nevidljivu ruku tak da neka jednostavna apstrakcija ne postoji. Nije ista stvar biti vlasnik Sportskih novina i TV Dnevnika..
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Old 10.01.2006., 00:55   #13
Mislio sam prije na muzičku i filmsku industriju ali i za vjesti nevidim baš da su angažirane za dobrobit populacije koliko za dobrobit svojih vlasnika.
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Old 10.01.2006., 06:13   #14
Pa to je poanta. Motivacija za rad proizlazi iz vlastitog interesa. Unatoč tome rad takvog pojedinca često će se poklopiti sa interesima zajednice.
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Old 10.01.2006., 10:18   #15
Često?? Nešto baš nisam primjetio. U tome i je fora. Zapad radi na premisi da "nevidljiva ruka" postoji i radi. I to je opasno pošto mi se čini da realnost pokazuje da tako nečega nema ni u tragovima.
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Old 10.01.2006., 12:16   #16
Nevidljiva ruka je ekonomski model samoorganizirane ekonomije, a ne politička moć ili stav. Ako zapad i odlazi u kvragu to nije zbog toga što nevidljiva ruka ne djeluje..

Otvori Striborov link i pročitaj esej: "Government is the problem not the solution".
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Old 10.01.2006., 13:37   #17
Po tom bi ispalo da bi bogataši samo brinuli o narodu. Nešto sumnjam. To je možda nekada (u povjesti) radilo ali sumnjam danas. Današnji zahtjevi na firme su da uništavaju sve samo da bi profit rastao prema beskonačnosti. Sorry ali to neće ić (osim ako se nastavi sa današnjim računanjem samo zarade a ne i prave cijene).
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Old 10.01.2006., 13:42   #18
Quote:
5. The hyper-Islamicist critique of the West as a decadent force that is already on a downhill course might be true
Bome i u ovom ima puno istine.
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Old 10.01.2006., 16:16   #19
Quote:
AxMi-24 kaže:
Po tom bi ispalo da bi bogataši samo brinuli o narodu.
Apsolutno ne. Nevidljiva ruka djeluje zbog toga što se:
a) svatko brine isključivo o vlastitim interesima
b) sistem je takav da ljudi mogu provoditi svoje interese

Sama ideja nevidljive ruke je da kolektiv beneficira zbog toga što svatko slijedi isključivo svoje interese. Cijela poanta je da zbog toga što svatko želi maksimizirati vlastiti dobitak sistem raste brže i stabilnije nego da postoji neka stroga kontrola istog.

Stvarno dobar opis nači ćeš ovdje: http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/3300. Direktno iz uma autora. Drugo poglavlje četvrte knjige bavilo time pa možeš odmah skočiti na to. Također preporučam ti da pročitaš par poglavlja prve knjige. Niti jedno poglavlje nije dugačko i lagano se čita..

Sada zaisgurno ćeš biti kritičan, kakvu god kritiku imao vjerojatno će ići u duhu ovih dviju fantastičnih kritika - Karl Marx: "Komunistički manifest" - http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/61 i Max Weber: "Protestantska etika i duh kapitalizma" http://www.ne.jp/asahi/moriyuki/abuk...eth_frame.html . Marxa moraš čitati. Čovjek je genije. Knjiga je kratka, a ionako je samo prvih 40-50 stranica relevanto (ostatak je revolucionarni pamflet). Od Webera pročitaj samo poglavlja "The Spirit Of Capitalism" i "Asceticism And The Spirit Of Capitalism."

Ukratko Marx kritizira poziciju koju bogataš zauzima u kapitalističkom društvu. Njegova kritka je duboka i vrlo humana, a dalekovidnost zaključaka koje donosi je naprosto nevjerojatna. Weber pak kritizira motivaciju za maksimiziranjem profita i posljedice koja ista donosi. U svakom slučaju vrlo solidno štivo.
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Old 16.05.2006., 16:00   #20
Imamo li nadzor nad znanosti? (opasne zamisli)
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