Zlato: prošlost, sadašnjost i budućnost

[Noach]

Meni su rekli da u trenutku kada i kumice na placu pocnu pricati o dionicama u ovom slucaju zlatu iz dionica odnosno zlata treba sto dalje bjezati.

[Mlajen]

vilamaestral kaže:

u zadnje vrijeme u toj krizi , se puno govori i prica i po medijama da bi se trebalo ulagati i u zlato.Sto vi mislite na to i koja su vasa iskustva sa ulaganjem u zlato i u bistvu gdje ulagati i prek koga?

Nemoj ulagati u zlato, nego ga kupuj.

[tinata]

Noach kaže:

Meni su rekli da u trenutku kada i kumice na placu pocnu pricati o dionicama u ovom slucaju zlatu iz dionica odnosno zlata treba sto dalje bjezati.

Još se ne priča o zlatu dovoljno.

[masimo1]

FYI:

Richard Russell - Fiat Money To Meet Its End

The biggest fraud of the last fifty years has been the rise and acceptance of fiat money; For that reason, I expect fiat money to meet its end before this bear market breathes its last. Judging by the size of the top, this could be the biggest bear market since the '30s. I believe this bear market means to take us back to basics and truth. That alone implies the end of central bank-created money and the rise of gold and probably silver. It may also end that immoral inflation machine, the Federal Reserve. Wall Street and its bankers now run the nation. That too will end.

Investors sometimes get caught up in the day to day and week to week movements in gold and silver. Don’t waste your time or energy on that, just accumulate. Standing in front of us is the greatest transfer of wealth in history. When the dust settles, those holding the gold will make the rules.

Buying at $1200 Gold? The Big Picture

Financial Sense Newshour
(many good interviews)

When Will Silver Prices Explode?

Overdose - The Next Financial Crisis (YouTube)

[masimo1]

FYI: Focus on Silver

[masimo1]

Obavezno procitati cijeli clanak. To je nekako i sazetak mog razmisljanja koje sam nekima na private vec ispricao.

Gold Entering a Virtuous Circle

Fundamental and technical factors for gold are now in total harmony and gold is entering a virtuous circle that will drive the price up at its fastest pace since this bull market started in 1999.

• It is a fact that gold in US dollars (and many other currencies) has gone up 400% in eleven years or 16% per annum annualised.
• It is a fact that the US dollar has declined 80% in value against gold since 1999.
• It is a fact that the dollar and most other currencies have gone down 98-99% against gold since 1913 when the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was created.
• It is also a fact that the Dow Jones (and many world stock markets) has declined over 80% against gold since 1999.
• It is a fact that gold has made a new all time monthly closing high in dollars in August 2010

We expect gold to start a substantial rise now which will continue for 5-10 months before any major correction. Gold’s technical picture is extremely strong with a continuous rising pattern of higher highs and higher lows with the steepness of the curve increasing. From much higher levels we are likely to see a correction that could last up to a year before the next rise which will last several years before we see a significant peak.

In spite of a 5 times increase in the value of gold or an 80% decline against many currencies and stockmarkets in the last 11 years, most investors own no gold and still do not understand the importance and value of gold. In a world of constant money printing and credit creation leading to devaluing currencies and devaluing assets, gold reflects stability and is virtually the only store of value that cannot be destroyed by governments.

The average asset manager, fund manager, pension fund or private individual owns no physical gold and at best has a very small exposure to some precious metals stocks. And in spite of this gold has gone up over 400% in 11 years. How is that possible? For the simple reason with the relatively modest demand that we have seen in the last few years, there is not enough physical gold even at these levels...
...
Three realistic Gold targets: $6,000 – $7,000 – $10,000:

• In the 1971 to 1980 gold cycle, gold went from $35 per ounce to $850 or up over 24 times. If we were to see the same increase in this cycle, gold would rise to over $6,000.
• The gold peak at $850 in 1980 corresponds to over $7,000 today adjusted for real inflation based on the inflation rate as calculated by John William’s Government Shadow Statistics (shadowstats.com)
• Gold and gold mining shares were an average of around 25% of world financial asset between 1921 and 1981. Today, gold and mining shares are only 0.9% of world financial assets. If gold and mining shares were to go to 25% of financial assets, gold would go to over $31,000. But even if we assume that world financial asset would go down by 2/3rds from here that would put gold at over $10,000.

...

[masimo1]

Jesse Livermore - “They Miss The Big Movements.”

Alan Greenspan: Hedge Against the Federal Reserve and Buy Gold

The curious Alan Greenspan, who is now 84 years old, appears to have come full circle and returned to the ideas of his earlier years. In 1966, at the age of 40, he wrote a paper calling for the United States to return to a full gold standard and warned of the dangers of not doing so:

He, of course, abandoned this view, at least publicly, as chairman of the Federal Reserve, and became the money printing puppeteer that through the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the banking system.
...

[mizuzul]

Ovo što autor članka govori o korekciji cijene zlata može,a i ne mora se ostvariti ovisno o stanju dugova i trenutnom stanju.Već dva puta imali smo ozbiljne korekcije iza kojih je zlato brzo ponovno otišlo gore čak uz rastući dolar.Dakle da bi korekcija mogla trajati godinu dana u ovakvom stanju s dugovima i gospodarstvom čisto sumnjam.Je,mnogi će loviti profit i cijena će se korigirati pa i ozbiljno,ali ne tako dugo.Inače srebro je danas nakratko nakon 2 godine probilo 20 Usd.
Davno sam rekao i opet kažem sustav će pasti kada se inflacija cijena pokaže u sustavu,teško prije.Masimo,iz prve ruke kako je trenutno s cijenama hrane i energije u Sad-u?

[masimo1]

Na brzaka...
Korekcije mogu i te kako dugo trajati. Sto se dogodilo nakon prosle globalne delaveraging episode in koliko dugo je trajalo, da se zlato vratilo na $1000+? Dugo.
Mozda se nesto slicno ponovi. Maybe yes, maybe no. Onda tu su i tehnikalije. Nista ne ide u jednom pravcu. Onda po nekim analizama to sto moze uzrokovati povecu i duzu korekciju su i problemi ETF-a (GLD, SLV, itd) koji bi kroz nepovjerenje u njih (no/not enough real gold/silver backing) rezultirali padom vrijednosti paper gold, kako bi investitori iz njih izlazili, time da bi se real gold moglo kupiti samo daleko od spot cijene. Itd, itd. Pa meni ce sledece godine korekcija trajati ne samo godinu dana nego cak i vise...

"Sustav pasti"? Sustav vec godinama "pada". To je proces.
Inflacija? CCI tells a story...

[mizuzul]

masimo1 kaže:

Na brzaka...
Korekcije mogu i te kako dugo trajati. Sto se dogodilo nakon prosle globalne delaveraging episode in koliko dugo je trajalo, da se zlato vratilo na $1000+? Dugo.
Mozda se nesto slicno ponovi. Maybe yes, maybe no. Onda tu su i tehnikalije. Nista ne ide u jednom pravcu. Onda po nekim analizama to sto moze uzrokovati povecu i duzu korekciju su i problemi ETF-a (GLD, SLV, itd) koji bi kroz nepovjerenje u njih (no/not enough real gold/silver backing) rezultirali padom vrijednosti paper gold, kako bi investitori iz njih izlazili, time da bi se real gold moglo kupiti samo daleko od spot cijene. Itd, itd. Pa meni ce sledece godine korekcija trajati ne samo godinu dana nego cak i vise...

"Sustav pasti"? Sustav vec godinama "pada". To je proces.
Inflacija? CCI tells a story...

Ok,istina je da je trebalo oko 1 godinu da se vrati stara vrijednost,ali je isto istina da je 70% izgubljenog bilo nadoknađeno brzo,a to je po meni dugoročan indikator i da je Dow padao još mjesecima iza toga i to za ukupno oko 40%.Pravi udar koji je zlato solidno podnijelo.Da ne kažem da je tada u krizi recimo spot cijena srebra bila 9 Usd,ali si srebrne američke orlove na e-bayu mogao kupiti tek po 35 Usd.Barem je tako po Mike Maloneyu...Dakle u takvoj težoj krizi bi vjerovatno teško mogao nabaviti plemeniti metal po trenutnoj cijeni.

Ali sada su deficiti puno veći,inflacija cijena hrane i energije se počinje primjećivati.
Cpi,vladina mjera inflacije nije uopće pouzdana.Oni mjere inflaciju tako da veći naglasak daju onome čemu je cijena jeftinija ili pada.Također,ako je neka npr.pećnica 25% skuplja,ali i 25% "efikasnija" nema promjene u Cpi,ili ako je auto 10% sigurniji isto....
Odlično,ako uslijedi kakva duža "stabilnija" korekcija,to bi trebalo značiti i veću stabilnost na višoj razini promatrano dugoročno kada se povrati izgubljeno.

[krkisl]

masimo1 kaže:

Pa meni ce sledece godine korekcija trajati ne samo godinu dana nego cak i vise...

masimo1, što kažeš na jim sinclairovo predviđanje od 1650$ do nove godine.

quote jim sinclair:
''Now that expectations for Gold at very significant prices are being offered by various rational sources, there is one thing you can be sure of. That one thing is $1650...
There is no doubt in my mind that $1650 will occur in early 2011. I have told you that Martin Armstrong, a master timer, feels that gold will trade higher and face a reaction in middle to late June of 2011.
The gold banks are throwing blocks to the price as we approach $1262. This is a major waste of time and money as gold is going to and through that price. The only argument is whether gold will hit $1650 in January 2011 or $3000-$5000 in June 2011.''

[masimo1]

mizuzul kaže:

Cpi,vladina mjera inflacije nije uopće pouzdana.Oni mjere inflaciju tako da veći naglasak daju onome čemu je cijena jeftinija ili pada.Također,ako je neka npr.pećnica 25% skuplja,ali i 25% "efikasnija" nema promjene u Cpi,ili ako je auto 10% sigurniji isto....

Napisao sam CCI, Commodity Index (about CCI):



Ako cijena surovina (hrane, energije, metala, zlata, ...), soft & hard commodities, raste kao sto raste, mislim da je iluzija govoriti kako inflacije nema...

[masimo1]

Must listen & read:

Interview w/ James Dines

Richard Russell - Graveyard of Fiat Money

In Richard Russell’s commentary this week, the Godfather of newsletter writers discusses a decade of losses, fiat money being put to the test, ending an era of frivolity and real money (gold). In a time of great uncertainty, sometimes it is a good idea to turn to those with decades of market experience. As usual Russell kept his eye on the big picture. Here are a few snippets from this week’s commentary...
September 10, 2010

Richard Russell:

What was the stock market telling us by handing us a decade of losses? The answer is that the stock market was telling us that the era of frivolity and good times in the US had come to an end. Something very fundamental had changed.

...To wipe out 10 years of stock gains is a most unusual feat. I think it means the end of equities as the magic and guaranteed road to riches. It's the end of Warren Buffet's thesis that you should "buy good stocks and hold 'em forever." What this means is that Americans can no longer be certain of their retirement. It means the end of the time-honored American dream that "My kids will have a better life than I had."

It may also herald the end of America's leadership on the world's stage. America will be just a republic as the Founding Fathers wanted it to be -- not an empire.

...In the big picture, I believe we're going to put fiat money to the test. Fiat money allowed the US to experience boom. Fiat money produced the tech bust, the equities bust and the housing bust. Fiat money is the vehicle that is created and sponsored by the world's central banks. Fiat money will prove to be a fraud. Out of the graveyard of fiat money will emerge real intrinsic money -- gold. But gold's time has not yet come.

The gold bull market is a very strange bull market. It's a bull market that has progressed without the participation of the US public. That will change. When it comes, we will finally experience the speculative third phase of the gold bull market.

...The more I see of Obama, Summers and Geithner, the more I want to have all my money in gold. The Washington establishment is a menace to this nation. Don't bother fighting them, just protect yourself. Remember, you can still swap fiat junk for real money.

[masimo1]

krkisl kaže:

quote jim sinclair:
''Now that expectations for Gold at very significant prices are being offered by various rational sources, there is one thing you can be sure of. That one thing is $1650...
There is no doubt in my mind that $1650 will occur in early 2011. I have told you that Martin Armstrong, a master timer, feels that gold will trade higher and face a reaction in middle to late June of 2011.
The gold banks are throwing blocks to the price as we approach $1262. This is a major waste of time and money as gold is going to and through that price. The only argument is whether gold will hit $1650 in January 2011 or $3000-$5000 in June 2011.''

When they talk we listen.

~80% of what I have liquid is riding on gold, silver and related miners. I plan on selling ~1/3 early next summer depending on how things go.

My point is this... Don't view gold as a short-term bet to profit. View gold as a long term investment that still has many years to go. My exit strategy is based not on the above statements, not even on timing but on a number of conditions, some of which I've already pointed out. As such, I view the above statements as great but not as "that's the reason to bet the house on this price & timing projection."

[mizuzul]

Nego što se tiče zadnje velike korekcije iz 2008. nešto mi je palo na pamet.
Istina cijena zlata u dolarima ponašala se kako sam opisao,ali ne i u eurima...
Dolar je tada dosta rastao kako je cijena dionica padala,svi su morali biti likvidni,a hiperinflacije nije bilo na vidiku.Sada se inače polako formira jedan drugi uzorak.Bio je to iznimno jak rally u dolaru s razine 1.6 dolara za euro na 1.3 dolara za euro.Dakle zlato je u eurima nije ništa izgubilo usred snažne deflacije,a po donjoj karti ustvari je raslo gotovo cijelo vrijeme.Mislim da je mjerodavnije,barem nama promatrati cijenu u eurima,dakle i kunama.Dolar je daleko manipuliranija valuta.

http://www.google.hr/url?sa=t&source...w4AdC-GdyDqB-g

[lee_chan]

ukrcati se u zlato i čekati navijačku atmosferu kada će ići prema 10000, baš kao što je bilo kada je dow išao prema 14 000. sjećam se tog trenutka gledao sam cnbc i u studiu je bilo kao na stadionu

[masimo1]

FYI: The Gold Wars - Presentation (pdf)

[masimo1]

Zlato, gold miners za vrijeme 1930's deflacije...

[masimo1]

FYI: Another great interview of a large & old gold dealer

[Lucky]

http://www.thedailybell.com/1371/Ant...ent-Wrong.html